Several factors point towards an above-normal hurricane season: continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for a more active West African Monsoon (a common origin for Atlantic hurricanes). Individually and collectively, these elements tend to increase the likelihood of tropical storm formation.
“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season
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