COP 30 limped to an end on 22 November. Another expensive global gathering that made no concrete progress on climate change and totally failed to reach consensus on a road map to phase out fossil fuels.

But let’s get real. COP 30 was never going to be a success because it was based on the wrong premise. If getting to net zero depends on all countries transitioning away from fossil fuels, it is never going to happen.

The science behind the Paris Agreement has not changed. Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more intense. The race to net zero is vital to avoid enormous economic and human impacts in the near future…but we are not winning the race. The roadblocks are still there: inconsistent net zero goals by country; insufficient progress and investment on scaling up renewables; too many corporations that are not really committed; no meaningful enforcement or accountability at any level.

We must accept that scaling up renewables is expensive, and emerging economies cannot prioritise that over the affordable energy their societies need to support wealth creation and progress. Many countries rely on fossil fuel revenues to support their economies. The energy infrastructure in many countries is built around fossil fuels, and transitioning to renewables requires huge investment and changes to the electricity grid, energy storage and distribution systems. In a higher-inflation environment post Covid, consumers do not support paying higher energy prices for renewable energy. In an increasingly polarised world, energy security is a priority, and developed countries need to enable emerging countries to access affordable energy to grow their economies.

The race to AI leadership - today’s Space Race - requires massive amounts of continuously reliable energy to power the data centres on which it depends. Global economic conditions have also shifted: emerging economies still clamour for trillions in climate mitigation funding that developed countries no longer have the money or the political appetite to provide. The idea of moving away from fossil fuels entirely in the next 50 years is just not credible today. Doing it by 2050 is a delusion.

To make real progress, the world needs three big changes. The first is that we must find scale technologies to make traditional oil & gas greener and more sustainable, and to accelerate the economically-viable industrial production and deployment of biofuels. Green hydrogen has great potential as a renewable, but is very far from being scalable. The key to achievable short-term progress is to focus on transitional fuels, such as natural gas and synthetic fuels, that are lower-emission and crucially can serve as “drop-in” replacements for conventional fuels without requiring huge investments in new energy infrastructure.

The second big change is adopting global emissions accounting, so that every public and private sector business or government body in every country reports its GHG emissions in a simple, consistent and comparable way. This will make progress towards net zero commitments fully transparent, which will drive accountability. This global accounting process needs to be monitored by the UN.

The third change is even bigger. We must be honest and transparent with ourselves, and our politicians need to be honest with their voters. The global road map will not get us to net zero by 2050 and to get there we need a call to action for all scientists and innovators around the world to invent breakthrough, science-based solutions in removing CO2 from the atmosphere faster. Scientific research and innovation have always been the greatest driver of progress for mankind, and it must be again for climate change.

To create the world we want, we must accept the world we have. We have to find a road map to net zero that includes a place for fossil fuels. It is the only road that can create energy security, affordability, wealth and shared prosperity in a fair transition.